Contrary to official figures suggesting that only 39 percent of the population resides in urban areas, a sophisticated analysis utilizing satellite imagery and advanced classification methodologies reveals that the true level of urbanization is closer to 88 percent.
This substantial discrepancy arises because the nation currently relies on outdated administrative boundaries that fail to accurately capture actual population density or settlement patterns. By applying the internationally recognized Degree of Urbanisation (DoU) methodology, researchers found that the functionally urban population is nearly twice the size reported in official statistics.
The analysis indicates that 88 percent of residents live in areas exhibiting urban characteristics: 46 percent are in high-density cities, and a further 42 percent are located in moderately dense urban centers. These figures contrast sharply with the officially reported 39 percent, revealing a major gap between politically defined and technically measured classifications. The data suggests that secondary cities and growing peri-urban zones—rather than just megacities—are the principal drivers of recent urban expansion, yet they are systematically overlooked in traditional administrative definitions.
This divergence between functional and administrative classifications carries severe fiscal and planning consequences. Misclassified areas lead directly to reduced property tax revenues and actively undermine the effective planning and delivery of essential public services. Furthermore, reliance on administrative definitions distorts crucial spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy.
The roots of this classification problem are historical. The official designation of urban areas last reflected on-the-ground realities in 1972. Prior to that time, objective indicators such as infrastructure, population count, and service provision were consistently used. Since 1972, however, the responsibility for defining urban status shifted to provincial and municipal committees, which are neither formally required to consider objective metrics like population concentration nor obligated to periodically revise outdated boundaries.
Across all regions, the official statistics consistently underrepresent urbanization. For instance, while official data suggests an urban population of just 15 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the DoU estimates this figure to be nearly three times higher. Islamabad, often officially listed as 47 percent urban, is functionally closer to 90 percent dense urban territory.
Overall, the research demonstrates a dramatic transformation of the national urban landscape over the past two decades. Since the early 2000s, a growing share of the population has shifted away from agriculture, effectively transforming previously rural settlements into new and vibrant urban centers, demanding a fundamental revision of planning and policy.
